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Kenya: Confusion as much awaited El Niño disaster scaled down

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President William Ruto’s remarks that Kenya will not face the predicted El Niño rains that had been earlier announced by the country’s Meteorological Department has left Kenyans confused.

On 30 July, the National Meteorological Department released a statement warning that the country would be hit by heavy rains and floods from mid-October to December, which would lead to floods and destruction of property and risk lives.

“El Niño is here with us. We call upon Kenyans to prepare,” Kenya Meteorological Department director David Gikungu said.

Sunny, with a slight chance of rain

Since then, most parts of the country, including the capital, Nairobi, continue to be hot and sunny with parts of the Eastern and Western regions recording short rains, according to the forecast from the same Meteorological department.

Last Sunday, Ruto’s pronouncement that the country had avoided El Niño had Kenyans talking, not knowing who to trust between him and the weather experts.

“There will just be a lot of rain. We thank God,” Ruto said.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has not commented or clarified Ruto’s remarks.

A source who did not want to be named in the Department tells The Africa Report “that issue is sensitive and can only be commented on by the director who is currently out of the country.”

Boats and unblocked drains

In September, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua called county governors and disaster management agencies to meet urgently in Nairobi to address Kenya’s preparedness for the imminent El Niño rains.

Governors asked for KSh35.2bn ($234.6m) in funds to enable counties to adequately prepare for the heavy rains, as 23 out of 47 counties were at high risk.

Nairobi county then announced plans to purchase motor boats and inflatable water rafts to help city residents move in times of floods, to the surprise of Kenyans.

“We want to ensure our residents are safe. We need boats to access them during the disaster,” said Bramwel Simiyu, leader of the Nairobi County El Niño taskforce.

Governor Johnson Sakaja also announced the recruitment of 3,500 environmental officers to clean and unblock the drains across city estates.

In Siaya County, Western region, gold mining had been suspended due to dangers associated with El Niño, which are now in doubt.

In an interview with Citizen TV, Nelson Koech, an MP from the ruling government party United Democratic Alliance (UDA) said he was sceptical about the predicted rains, saying lawmakers will check on the allocation of funds distributed to county governments in anticipation of the predicted bad weather.

“I don’t know where the Kenya Meteorological Department got the information from. I personally doubted them,” he said.

El Niño scandal

Residents are confused, and some believe the original announcement was a ploy to loot public funds while others have lost faith in the country’s meteorological agency.

“The governors should return the money. They don’t have any excuses. There is no El Niño,” Ken Maina, Nakuru resident, tells The Africa Report.

Agilo Obungu, a motorcycle rider in Embakasi, east of Nairobi, says he is not surprised. “The Kenya Meteorological Department has never predicted anything correctly. I don’t trust them at all,” he says.

For others who rely on the weather, such as farmers, the news was well received.

“I was worried that my plantation would be destroyed by water. I hope what Ruto said is true,” Penina Mulama, a maize farmer in Kitale, in the Western region, tells The Africa Report.

Kenya last experienced El Niño rains in 1997, which left a trail of destruction and caused diseases like cholera, leaving thousands infected.

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