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In 2023, Central Asian leaders demonstrated an increased willingness to institutionalize cooperation through annual summits and unified approaches to third countries. Despite foreign policy challenges, the focus of these meetings remained economic. Since 2017, the five Central Asian leaders have met at Central Asian Summits in Almaty, Tashkent, Awaza, Turkmenistan, and Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyz Republic.
The EU is planning to invest €18.5 billion in Middle Corridor routes, focusing on East-West connectivity, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Middle Corridor is being seen as an alternative to the main Europe-China rail connection. Central Asian producers are increasingly exporting goods like fertilisers, lentils, and apparel to Europe, Turkiye, and the Middle East.
The five leaders have increased collaboration in external relations, using the C5+1 format for meetings with heads of government. High-level meetings with European Council President Charles Michel in Cholpon-Ata, in-person summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Xi’an, and a C5+1 Presidential Summit with US President Joe Biden in New York in September 2023, asserted a shared self-image shaped by history, geography, and culture, which did not include Russia.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central Asia has experienced economic benefits from re-routed trade and disaffected Russians setting up bank accounts and small businesses. However, Central Asian governments have distanced themselves from Russia’s war, abstaining from voting for or against the 2022 UN motion condemning Russia’s invasion.
In 2023, they supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity while avoiding declarations of support for Russia. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asian countries have reduced dependence on Russia by building new infrastructure, finding new suppliers, markets, and pursuing multi-vector diplomacy.
Russia remains an important partner, but it is no longer the top importer, exporter, or investor in Central Asia. The Russia-Ukraine war reinforced this reorientation, with countries focusing on infrastructure plans to boost east-west links.
Since the resource boom ended, Central Asia has been diversifying economies and reducing dependence on Russia. In 2024, Central Asia is expected to return to its historic role as a Eurasian crossroads, with China, Turkiye, and the EU promoting east-west links.
