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The delay in China’s 20th Third Plenum, a key economic session, has sparked speculation in the market and various sectors. Chinese society is increasingly concerned about the future development direction of the country, reflecting micro-level entities’ interest in national policies and broader societal concerns. The 11th Third Plenum, held in 1978, marked a historic shift in China’s reform and opening up.
China’s challenges are not just technical policy issues but more fundamentally rooted in underlying problems. If the upcoming Third Plenum fails to address these fundamental issues and address widespread societal concerns, it could potentially impact China’s development over the next five to ten years.
From a market perspective, it is crucial to continue the process of reform and opening-up, as China has sustained it for 45 years since initiating this process in 1978. Maintaining momentum and confidence of reform and opening-up is of utmost importance for China, as confidence in reform and development among various sectors has gradually diminished in recent years. Aligning economic and market reforms with reforms in other areas of the system will become a prominent issue in the future.
China’s long-term development strategy should focus on meeting the evolving needs of the populace, despite existing regional and urban disparities. To achieve this, China should emphasize continuity and systematic approaches to development policies. The country’s primary contradiction remains developmental, with a focus on development first, followed by sustained development, and subsequently, high-quality development. China must rely on continuous development to navigate the middle-income trap and advance into the ranks of developed nations.
A shift towards the rule of law is necessary, relying on legal frameworks to construct the foundational structure for China’s social development. Implementing legal governance and avoiding excessive reliance on administrative power and control can enhance the potential for increased freedom in economic and social development. Addressing fluctuations in the private and socialist market economy is crucial, but the practical implementation of these strategies has led to confusion in the market.
Lastly, China should build its relations with the world based on openness and cooperation. The world is deeply entangled in intensified deglobalization and geopolitical maneuvering, and China’s leaders have repeatedly emphasized globalization and the shared destiny of humanity. China’s relationship with a changing world and convincing the world of its openness becomes a fundamental challenge for the future.
