The US presidential election in 2024 is expected to be a crucial year, with Trump leading Ron DeSantis by a 46% margin in the Republican camp and Nikki Haley potentially overtaking DeSantis for a second spot. Trump’s absence from all Republican party debates has not affected his prospects, leading to ‘Trumpism without Trump’ in the Republican party.
Biden leads a Democrat campaign to counter Donald Trump, focusing on economic stability through ‘Bidenomics’, restoring democracy, and focusing on the working class. Republicans criticize the Biden administration for poor southern border management and misdirected federal spending.
The 2024 US election is expected to be based on issue-centric campaigns, with the latter possibly having more ability to garner votes based on image. The growing number of registered independent voters shows that issues could trump personalities in the election. In the current election, there is a centring focus on Biden’s ‘weak’ leadership, and concerns have been raised among voters regarding Biden’s ability to run for another election. Biden is trailing Trump in seven swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The 2024 presidential elections will be influenced by political and social stability issues in the US, with President Biden warning against “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) and the aftermath of the 6 January Capitol Hill riots. Trump’s campaign is dominated by election fraud, stolen elections, and anti-vaxxers, while Republicans question Biden on similar issues. Urban disorder has further exacerbated the political divide, with voters divided on racial killings, sanctuary cities, and gang violence. Biden’s campaign is focused on a “battle for the soul of the nation,” while opposing campaigns like Black Lives Matter and antisemitism are tearing American society apart.
The Democratic party has been emphasizing progressive domestic matters, particularly on abortion rights. Abortion rights became a focal point in Ohio and Georgia during the 2022 midterm elections. The influx of immigrants is a pressing issue, with a surge at the Southern border bringing a record number of asylum seekers. Immigration has become a decisive issue between Republicans and Democrats, with Biden’s administration building some portions of the wall and increasing border agents.
The Biden administration has passed key policy initiatives such as the bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, the American rescue plan, and the CHIPS and Science Act. However, inflation and foreign policy decisions, particularly the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, have weighed heavily on Biden’s poll ratings. Energy politics is likely to be front and center again, with ongoing wars in the Middle East and Europe and Republicans taking a sceptical view of Biden’s green deal.
Foreign policy in the US is closely linked to domestic issues, with China being a significant concern. A significant 59% of the American public views China negatively, viewing it as either an enemy or unfriendly nation. Addressing this threat has become a pivotal issue, prompting both parties to advocate for a more hardline approach. Republican debates have focused on increasing the number of warships to counter China, especially amidst rising tensions in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. One key challenge lies in offering alternatives to Chinese-led investments, aligning with the continuation of the “Build Back Better” plan or Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Tariffs against China, initiated during Trump’s presidency, have remained in the Biden administration, with bipartisan support. The growing concern over Fentanyl is a significant issue, with Democrats highlighting a recent agreement with China, while Republicans criticize Biden’s weak counter-China stance. Biden’s party is divided, with progressives asking for the drawdown of support and a ceasefire in Gaza. His support has already waned among young voters due to the Israel-Hamas war, which may further play into the hands of Trump. The upcoming elections will significantly impact US Congress’s political control, with both Biden and Trump aiming to prevent a divided House.
